That’s it. The way I see it, the whole book business is going full-speed at a direction nobody really knows much about. That’s scary, of course, but that’s the way progress always has been. Not only scary, but hard to figure out and hard to reason with, and impossible to stop. The Pandora’s box is open, and all you can do is to catch on with the good things.
All that “e-books should cost something (a bit less than trade paperbacks, but not much less)” business? Well, I think that there will be e-books that will cost 15 USD and people will buy them. Not all people. Not even majority, I guess. The people who will very badly need that particular book at that particular moment, and probably, yes, for this price.
However, there is no way of stopping free e-books (or degrading them to “oh, that self-published crap”). There is no way of stopping e-books that are priced 2 USD or, say, 5 USD.
E-book is an excellent format for generating exposure, recognition and reader basis. Especially DRM-free e-books are easy and fast to acquire, convenient to store, easy to share and easy to have with you at every moment. The owner of the e-book doesn’t have to lose or even risk anything by sharing it. (Not so with paper books–nobody in their right mind is going to lend his or her favorite book, unless they have an extra copy of it.) The advantages of an e-book as a marketing tool are too great to forego them just because of fear to devaluate e-books, or to make people think they are entitled to free e-books. (That is, actually, all about marketing and positioning. People are still willing to pay, and pay often and a lot, for things that are available free or almost for free. Think water, for example: how many people purchase bottled water when they could easily boil or filter the tap water and have essentially the same thing?)
What I think will happen with books quite soon (in next five years, which is soon enough for me) is that people will have big big bookshelves again. This time, virtual. I remember my childhood when all the rooms I knew were crowded with bookshelves (and even now, a room without a bookshelf feels empty for me). Modern interiors often don’t have bookshelves, both because people don’t read that much any more and because books have become more expensive and people don’t buy books just to leaf through them once in a year if they’re bored and don’t know what they would want to read.
I think e-books will bring these “casual bookshelves” back; more and more people will have virtual bookshelves with hundreds of free or very cheap titles, and they will glance at a random page from time to time to see whether or not will they want to read that book.
Yes, more and more books will stay unread, simply because people won’t have invested much in them and they wouldn’t feel guilty for not reading them.
More and more, people will figure out what to read from the actual pages of writing. More and more, they will stop reading after first ten pages, figuring they’ll better spend time on reading the next free book in their library.
I think it’s a good thing. I think it gives enormous opportunities for new ways of distribution, marketing and selling books.
I think it’s a good thing also because more and more will depend on author’s voice, style and uniqueness.
I think it’s a good thing also because when people are accustomed to having books nearby all the time, they read more. And the more they read, the smarter, the more picky they will become; and also, of course, the more they will buy.
An interesting, well put and opposite opinion I recommend to read: E-books and issues of entitlement.